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Introducing the 29th edition of J.P. Morgan Assert Management’s Long-Term Capital Market AssumptionsVideo

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Video ADA Text: Introducing the 29th edition of J.P. Morgan Assert Management’s Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions video

Transcript Browser Title: Introducing the 29th edition of J.P. Morgan Assert Management’s Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions video

Description: We step back from the “short-termism” of modern finance to review the bigger picture, including the impact of artificial intelligence.

English

Video Id: 6363703654112

Audio Description Video Id: 6363704611112

Length (seconds): 112

Transcript: <h2>Side note:</h2> <p>Neutral background music plays.</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>A title expands over a tan background:</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>Top</p> <p><strong>MARKET</strong></p> <p><strong>TAKEAWAYS</strong></p> <p>October 25, 2024</p> <h2>Side note:</h2> <p>A bold disclaimer appears in a text box:</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>INVESTMENT AND INSURANCE PRODUCTS:</p> <ul> <li><p><strong>NOT A DEPOSIT</strong></p> </li> <li><p><strong>NOT FDIC INSURED</strong></p> </li> <li><p><strong>NOT INSURED BY ANY FEDERAL GOVERNMENT AGENCY</strong></p> </li> <li><p><strong>NO BANK GUARANTEE</strong></p> </li> <li><p><strong>MAY LOSE VALUE</strong></p> </li> </ul> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>A question appears over gray:</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>Artificial Intelligence: boom or bust?</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>A man in a navy blazer and glasses speaks from an office with a bookshelf. Identifying text appears beside him:</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p><strong>AARON GOLDSTEIN</strong></p> <p>DIGITAL INVESTMENT STRATEGIST,</p> <p>J.P. MORGAN WEALTH MANAGEMENT</p> <h2>Aaron Goldstein:</h2> <p>After a remarkable run from 2023 through the first half of 2024, fueled by the AI boom, the technology sector has seen a material uptick in volatility. Investors are now trying to look ahead after this historic surge. Despite the recent fluctuations, we remain confident in the long-term potential of AI and its ability to drive productivity.</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>Another question appears over gray:</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>Can AI spark a new era of productivity?</p> <h2>Aaron Goldstein:</h2> <p>We believe AI is not just a passing trend, but a transformative technology akin to the steam engine, electricity, and the personal computer.</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>Three icons appear over white: A train, a lightning bolt encircled by an arrow, and a desktop computer.</p> <h2>Aaron Goldstein:</h2> <p>Historically, it takes time for new technologies to translate into widespread productivity gains.</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>A bar graph appears, titled: 'Years from innovation to productivity growth,' with the vertical axis ranging from 0 to 70. A teal bar representing the Steam engine (1769) climbs to 61. A teal bar representing Electricity (1880) climbs to 32. And a teal bar representing PCs/Internet (1981) climbs to 15. Finally, a striped purple bar representing AI (2023) climbs to about 7.</p> <h2>Aaron Goldstein:</h2> <p>For instance, it took about 60 years for the steam engine to impact productivity. We believe AI could achieve similar results in just seven years.</p> <h2>Side note:</h2> <p>Small text below the graph reads:</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Business Trends and Outlook Survey. Data as of November 2023.</p> <h2>Aaron Goldstein:</h2> <p>These innovations didn't just make things run more efficiently; they redefined industries and created new ones.</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>A question appears over gray:</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>Can AI infrastructure drive the next wave of growth?</p> <h2>Aaron Goldstein:</h2> <p>One of the key reasons for our conviction is the substantial investment in AI infrastructure.</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>A bar graph appears, titled: 'Hyperscalers grew capex 58% year-over-year.' The vertical axis ranges from negative 20% to positive 70%, while the horizontal axis ranges from 4Q 22 to 2Q 24. The positive quarters are in teal and the negative quarters are in orange. The bar representing 4Q 22 rises to about 8%, while the next three quarters are all in the negative. 1Q 23 is about negative 4%, 2Q 23 is about negative 10%, and 3Q 23 is about negative 6%. The bar representing 4Q 23 rises to about 9%, while 1Q 24 rises to 30%. Last, the 2Q 24 bar rises to 58%.</p> <h2>Aaron Goldstein:</h2> <p>Hyperscalers, or large cloud service providers, have been investing heavily in semiconductors, data centers, and the energy needed to power AI models.</p> <h2>Side note:</h2> <p>Small text below the graph reads:</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. Data as of August 27, 2024. Hyperscalers are: M-S-F-T (Microsoft), M-E-T-A (Meta), G-O-O-G-L (Google), and A-M-Z-N (Amazon).</p> <h2>Aaron Goldstein:</h2> <p>In the second quarter alone, these companies spent $53 billion on capital expenditures, a 58% increase year-over-year. We expect this trend to not only continue but to also increase. While the initial phase of AI development focuses on building the necessary infrastructure, the next phase will be about integrating AI into our everyday lives, boosting productivity all while companies generate increased profits.</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>A bulleted list with three items appears over white:</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>Key Takeaways</p> <ul> <li>The technology sector has experienced increased volatility after a significant surge driven by AI</li> <li>We see AI as a transformative technology with long-term potential to drive productivity</li> <li>Significant investments in AI infrastructure are expected to continue and increase</li> </ul> <h2>Aaron Goldstein:</h2> <p>To learn more about Artificial Intelligence and what it could mean for investors, please visit CHASE.COM/THEKNOW</p> <h2>On screen logo:</h2> <p>A logo appears over gray: J.P. Morgan WEALTH MANAGEMENT.</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>To learn more, visit CHASE.COM/THEKNOW</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>An oval around the URL turns from white to blue.</p> <h2>Side note:</h2> <p>Legal disclaimers.</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>All market and economic data are sourced from Bloomberg Finance L.P. and FactSet unless otherwise stated.</p> <p>The views, opinions, estimates and strategies expressed herein constitutes the speaker's judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice, and may differ from those expressed by other areas of J.P. Morgan. This information in no way constitutes J.P. Morgan Research and should not be treated as such. You should carefully consider your needs and objectives before making any decisions --including whether the services, products, asset classes (e.g. equities, fixed income, alternative investments, commodities, etc.) or strategies discussed are suitable to your needs. You must also consider the objectives, risks, charges, and expenses associated with any investment or financial service, product or strategy prior to making an investment decision. For additional guidance on how this information should be applied to your situation, you should consult your advisor.</p> <p>Investing in securities involves market risk, including possible loss of principal, and there is no guarantee that investment objectives will be achieved.</p> <h2>Side note:</h2> <p>A disclaimer in bold reads:</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>(In bold) <strong>Outlooks and past performance is not a guarantee of future results.</strong></p> <h2>Side note:</h2> <p>The final disclaimers in regular font read:</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>It is not possible to invest directly in an index.</p> <p>Investment in alternative investment strategies is speculative, often involves a greater degree of risk than traditional investments including limited liquidity and limited transparency, among other factors and should only be considered by sophisticated investors with the financial capability to accept the loss of all or part of the assets devoted to such strategies.</p> <p>Asset allocation/diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against loss.</p> <p>J.P. Morgan Wealth Management is a business of JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., which offers investment products and services through (in bold) <strong>J.P. Morgan Securities LLC</strong> (JPMS), a registered broker-dealer and investment adviser, member FINRA and SIPC. Insurance products are made available through Chase Insurance Agency, Inc. (CIA), a licensed insurance agency, doing business as Chase Insurance Agency Services, Inc. in Florida. Certain custody and other services are provided by JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. (JPMCB). JPMS, CIA and JPMCB are affiliated companies under the common control of JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. Products not available in all states.</p> <p>Copyright {{copyrightCurrentYear}} JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co.</p>

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