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Bull vs. bear: 3 debates that defined the weekVideo

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Description: We discuss what a strong Q4 earnings season indicates as well as recent market trends and our outlook on what’s ahead.

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Length (seconds): 110

Transcript: <h2>Note:</h2> <p>Background music plays.</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>This video opens on a man in a dress shirt and blazer, in an office with plants and natural wood accents.</p> <h2>Note:</h2> <p>A bold disclaimer appears in a text box:</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p><strong>INVESTMENT AND INSURANCE PRODUCTS:</strong></p> <ul> <li><strong>NOT A DEPOSIT</strong></li> <li><strong>NOT FDIC INSURED</strong></li> <li><strong>NOT INSURED BY ANY FEDERAL GOVERNMENT AGENCY</strong></li> <li><strong>NO BANK GUARANTEE</strong></li> <li><strong>MAY LOSE VALUE</strong></li> </ul> <h2>Federico Cuevas:</h2> <p>Here are your Top Market Takeaways.</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>A circle with a title expands:</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>Top<strong> MARKET TAKEAWAYS</strong></p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>Text appears over the speaker:</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p><strong>FEDERICO CUEVAS</strong></p> <p>Associate, Global Investment Strategy, J.P. Morgan Wealth Management</p> <p>March 1st, 2024</p> <h2>Federico Cuevas:</h2> <p>Q4 earnings season stands to mark the second straight quarter of earnings growth after almost a year of contraction. So far, close to 90% of the companies in the S&amp;P 500 have reported.</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>Text appears over gray: 'What happened in Q4 2023?'</p> <h2>Federico Cuevas:</h2> <p>With only 10% of the S&amp;P 500 market cap outstanding in this season, we continue to see a positive trend with earnings revisions moving higher.</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>A bar graph appears, titled: 'Earnings growth is on the rise in the U.S.' A subheading reads: 'S&amp;P 500 EPS Growth, Year-Over-Year % Change.' The vertical axis ranges from negative 40% to positive 100%, and the horizontal axis ranges from 2017 to beyond 2025, with everything beyond early 2024 in light blue to represent 'Consensus Expectations.' From '17 to late '18, the growth remains positive, averaging about 20%. From '19 to '20, the growth hovers around zero percent, then dips down to about negative 30% between '20 and '21. It jumps up to about 50% in early '21, and right under 90% towards the middle of the year. Then it gradually drops down to about 10% by '22, and hovers around zero percent again from mid-'22 through '23. Towards the end of '23, it climbs back into the low positives, and is expected to climb to about 20% from mid-'24 through 2025.</p> <h2>Federico Cuevas:</h2> <p>Based on where we are now, estimates for the fourth quarter should approach the 3.5% growth rate bolstered by positive earnings surprises across sectors.</p> <h2>Note:</h2> <p>Small print text appears.</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>Sources: 'FactSet, Morgan Stanley. Data as of February 9, 2024. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.'</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>Text appears over gray: 'What does this mean for the big picture?'</p> <h2>Federico Cuevas:</h2> <p>While U.S. stocks have rallied over 20% in just a matter of months, alongside tailwinds around rate cuts, disinflation, and a resilient consumer, equity performance moving forward will likely come down to the power of earnings. For calendar year 2023, earnings growth rate currently sits at 0.9%. Looking ahead, analysts predict earnings growth of 3.9% in Q1 2024 and 10.9% for full year 2024.</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>The values appear on either side of him: 'Earnings Growth Q1 2024, 3.9%,' and, 'Earnings Growth Full Year 2024, 10.9%.'</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>Text appears over gray: 'Have investors on the sidelines missed the rally?'</p> <h2>Federico Cuevas:</h2> <p>While past performance does not guarantee future results, history tells us that investing when the market is at an all-time high often leads to solid future returns. Over the last 50-years, if you'd invested in the S&amp;P 500 at an all-time high, your investment would have been higher a year later 70% of the time, with an average return of 9.4% versus the 9% on average when investing at any time.</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>A bulleted list appears below a title with a magnifying glass:</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p><strong>KEY TAKEAWAYS</strong></p> <ul> <li>Q4 earnings season stands to mark a second straight quarter of growth</li> <li>Estimates for the fourth quarter should approach the 3.5% growth rate bolstered by positive earnings surprises across sectors</li> <li>Looking ahead, analysts predict earnings growth of +3.9% for Q1 2024 and +10.9% for full year 2024</li> </ul> <h2>Federico Cuevas:</h2> <p>To learn more, please visit chase.com/theknow.</p> <h2>On Screen:</h2> <p>J.P.Morgan Wealth Management logo.</p> <h2>Note:</h2> <p>Legal disclosures.</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>The views, opinions, estimates and strategies expressed herein constitutes the speaker's judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice, and may differ from those expressed by other areas of J.P. Morgan. This information in no way constitutes J.P. Morgan research and should not be treated as such. You should carefully consider your needs and objectives before making any decisions --including whether the services, products, asset classes (e.g. equities, fixed income, alternative investments, commodities, etc.) or strategies discussed are suitable to your needs. You must also consider the objectives, risks, charges, and expenses associated with any investment or financial service, product or strategy prior to making an investment decision. For additional guidance on how this information should be applied to your situation, you should consult your advisor.</p> <h2>Note:</h2> <p>A disclosure in bold reads:</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p><strong>Investing in securities involves market risk, including possible loss of principal, and there is no guarantee that investment objectives will be achieved. Outlooks and past performance is not a guarantee of future results.</strong></p> <h2>Note:</h2> <p>Another disclosure in regular font continues:</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>Investment in alternative investment strategies is speculative, often involves a greater degree of risk than traditional investments including limited liquidity and limited transparency, among other factors and should only be considered by sophisticated investors with the financial capability to accept the loss of all or part of the assets devoted to such strategies.</p> <h2>Note:</h2> <p>In bold:</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p><strong>Asset allocation/diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against loss.</strong></p> <h2>Note:</h2> <p>The final disclosure in regular font reads:</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>J.P. Morgan Wealth Management is a business of JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., which offers investment products and services through J.P. Morgan Securities LLC (JPMS), a registered broker-dealer and investment adviser, member FINRA and SIPC. Insurance products are made available through Chase Insurance Agency, Inc. (CIA), a licensed insurance agency, doing business as Chase Insurance Agency Services, Inc. in Florida. Certain custody and other services are provided by JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. (JPMCB). JPMS, CIA and JPMCB are affiliated companies under the common control of JPMorgan.</p> <p>Copyright {{copyrightCurrentYear}} JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co.</p>

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