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The first days of the Trump presidency: 3 things we learnedVideo

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Transcript: <h2>Side note:</h2> <p>Neutral background music plays.</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>This video opens in an office with a textured wall, where a man in a suit and tie stands behind a desk with a mug and some notes.</p> <h2>Logo:</h2> <p>A J.P. Morgan Wealth Management logo remains in an upper corner.</p> <h2>Side note:</h2> <p>A bold disclaimer in a text box reads:</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p><strong>INVESTMENT AND INSURANCE PRODUCTS:</strong></p> <ul> <li><p><strong>NOT A DEPOSIT</strong></p> </li> <li><p><strong> NOT FDIC INSURED</strong></p> </li> <li><p><strong> NOT INSURED BY ANY FEDERAL GOVERNMENT AGENCY</strong></p> </li> <li><p><strong> NO BANK GUARANTEE</strong></p> </li> <li><p><strong> MAY LOSE VALUE</strong></p> </li> </ul> <h2>Ajene Oden:</h2> <p>Here are your Top Market Takeaways.</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>A teal circle with a title expands:</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>Top</p> <p><strong>MARKET</strong></p> <p><strong>TAKEAWAYS</strong></p> <p><strong>JANUARY 24, 2025</strong></p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>Identifying text appears beside the speaker:</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p><strong>AJENE ODEN</strong></p> <p>GLOBAL INVESTMENT STRATEGIST,</p> <p>J.P. MORGAN WEALTH MANAGEMENT</p> <h2>Ajene Oden:</h2> <p>Let's talk about tariffs. A tariff is a tax levied by governments on imports or exports.</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>A line graph appears with the heading: 'Tariff revenue as a share of total federal receipts, %.' A vertical axis ranges from 0% to 100% while a horizontal axis ranges from 1791 to beyond 2020.</p> <h2>Ajene Oden:</h2> <p>They have been part of U.S. policy since 1791, once making up 90% of federal income. Today, they contribute just 2%, with income taxes taking over.</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>A teal line appears on the graph, showing that in the late 18th and early 19th centuries, tariffs were a dominant source of federal revenue, consistently exceeding 90% of federal receipts from 1791 to around 1811. This begins to decline during the mid-19th century, with notable drops around 1812, 1836, and 1860s, falling to around 29.7% by 1866. The trend continues into the late 19th and early 20th centuries, with tariffs constituting only about 13.5% by the 1930s. Then, the chart zooms into a range showing the mid-20th century until now, with tariffs accounting for less than 2% of federal receipts.</p> <h2>Side note:</h2> <p>Small text below the chart reads:</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>Sources: WhiteHouse; Census; CEA calculations. Note data prior to 1940 does not match current fiscal year convention. Data as of June 20, 2024.</p> <h2>Ajene Oden:</h2> <p>So, why are tariffs making a comeback, and what does this mean for investors?</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>A question appears over gray:</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>What is the current state of supply chains?</p> <h2>Ajene Oden:</h2> <p>Over the last few decades, the U.S. has become more reliant on imports, with much of the production concentrated in China. China's dominance in producing inputs for future technologies, such as artificial intelligence, electric vehicles, and renewables, poses a strategic risk. They process 90% of rare earth minerals, assemble 38% of semiconductors, and produce 76% of batteries.</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>Circle graphs appear beside him, showing 90% around a teal mountain icon representing 'Rare earth minerals,' 38% around a purple computer chip icon representing 'Semiconductors,' and 76% around an orange battery icon with a lightning bolt representing 'Batteries.'</p> <h2>Ajene Oden:</h2> <p>This reliance highlights the urgency to diversify U.S. supply chains.</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>A question appears over gray:</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>What can we expect from policymakers?</p> <h2>Ajene Oden:</h2> <p>Policymakers have a few options.</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>A heading appears beside him:</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>Policymakers' Options</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>Three bullet points appear, listing:</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <ul> <li><p>Do nothing</p> </li> <li><p>Raise tariffs</p> </li> <li><p>Incentivize domestic production</p> </li> </ul> <h2>Ajene Oden:</h2> <p>Do nothing, raise tariffs, or incentivize domestic production. While higher tariffs might disrupt supply chains, they could also lead to trade shifts, and industrial subsidies could help boost local production. We expect tariffs on Chinese imports to rise from 20% to 50%, which might slightly increase U.S. inflation. These steps could benefit U.S. investments, especially in industrial and defense sectors. However, we emphasize the importance of maintaining a diversified portfolio.</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>A bulleted list with three items appears under a heading:</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>Key Takeaways</p> <ul> <li><p>Tariffs are being reintroduced to address supply chain security.</p> </li> <li><p>Tariffs and industrial subsidies can build domestic capacity and reduce vulnerabilities.</p> </li> <li><p>Measures could likely favor U.S. industrial and defense investments.</p> </li> </ul> <h2>Ajene Oden:</h2> <p>For information on how tariffs could impact your portfolio, contact a financial advisor.</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>A logo appears over gray:</p> <h2>Logo:</h2> <p>J.P. Morgan WEALTH MANAGEMENT.</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>To learn more, visit CHASE.COM/ADVISOR.</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>An oval around the URL turns from white to blue.</p> <h2>Side note:</h2> <p>Legal disclosures:</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>All market and economic data are sourced from Bloomberg Finance L.P. and FactSet unless otherwise stated.</p> <p>The views, opinions, estimates and strategies expressed herein constitutes the speaker's judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice, and may differ from those expressed by other areas of J.P. Morgan. This information in no way constitutes J.P. Morgan Research and should not be treated as such. You should carefully consider your needs and objectives before making any decisions --including whether the services, products, asset classes (e.g. equities, fixed income, alternative investments, commodities, etc.) or strategies discussed are suitable to your needs. You must also consider the objectives, risks, charges, and expenses associated with any investment or financial service, product or strategy prior to making an investment decision. For additional guidance on how this information should be applied to your situation, you should consult your advisor.</p> <p>Investing in securities involves market risk, including possible loss of principal, and there is no guarantee that investment objectives will be achieved. (In bold) <strong>Outlooks and past performance is not a guarantee of future results.</strong></p> <p>(Also in bold) <strong>Past performance is no guarantee of future results.</strong> It is not possible to invest directly in an index.</p> <p>The price of equity securities may rise or fall due to the changes in the broad market or changes in a company's financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. Equity securities are subject to &quot;stock market risk&quot; meaning that stock prices in general may decline over short or extended periods of time.</p> <p>Asset allocation/diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against loss.</p> <p>J.P. Morgan Wealth Management is a business of JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., which offers investment products and services through (in bold) <strong>J.P. Morgan Securities LLC</strong> (JPMS), a registered broker-dealer and investment adviser, member FINRA and SIPC. Insurance products are made available through Chase Insurance Agency, Inc. (CIA), a licensed insurance agency, doing business as Chase Insurance Agency Services, Inc. in Florida. Certain custody and other services are provided by JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. (JPMCB). JPMS, CIA and JPMCB are affiliated companies under the common control of JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. Products not available in all states.</p> <p>Copyright {copyrightCurrentYear}} JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co.</p>

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