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CWM - Top Market Takeaways 01.19.24Video

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Length (seconds): 106

Transcript: <h2>Side note:<br /> </h2> <p>Patriotic music plays.</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>This video opens with a man in a suit with an American flag bowtie. He points a small American flag in his hand.</p> <h2>Side note:</h2> <p>A bold disclaimer appears in a text box:</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>Investment and insurance products:</p> <p><strong>INVESTMENT AND INSURANCE PRODUCTS:</strong></p> <ul> <li>NOT A DEPOSIT</li> <li>NOT FDIC INSURED</li> <li>NOT INSURED BY ANY FEDERAL GOVERNMENT AGENCY</li> <li>NO BANK GUARANTEE</li> <li>MAY LOSE VALUE</li> </ul> <h2>Shawn Snyder:</h2> <p>Here are your Top Market Takeaways.</p> <h2>Side note:</h2> <p>The patriotic music transitions to soft electronic music.</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>A circle with a title expands:</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>'<em>Top</em> <strong>MARKET TAKEAWAYS</strong>'</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>Text appears over the speaker:</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p><strong>SHAWN SNYDER</strong></p> <p>Global Investment Strategist, J.P. Morgan Wealth Management</p> <p>January 19, 2024</p> <h2>Shawn Snyder:</h2> <p>Did you know that over 40 national elections will be held this year? Combined, those elections will represent nearly half of the world’s GDP. At J.P. Morgan Wealth Management, we realize that elections can be emotional, so we’re not here to share our political views with you. Instead, we want to inform you about three common myths about elections and financial markets.</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>Text appears over the #3: '<strong>3 common myths</strong> about elections &amp; financial markets.'</p> <p>More text appears over gray: 'Myth #1: Stocks don't perform well in an election year.'</p> <h2>Shawn Snyder:</h2> <p>When it comes to markets, history shows there’s actually been very little difference between election years and non-election years.</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>A bar graph appears, titled: 'Average S&amp;P Returns During Presidential Election Years and Non-Election Years (1928-2020).' The vertical axis shows percentages ranging from 5-8.5%, while two bars rising from the horizontal axis show Election Years, and Non-Election Years. The blue election year bar rises to 7.5%, while the orange non-election years bar rises to 8.0%.</p> <h2>Side note:</h2> <p>Small print text appears.</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>'Source: Standard and Poor's and J.P.Morgan Wealth Management. Data as of December 31, 2023.'</p> <h2>Shawn Snyder:</h2> <p>Since 1928, the average return for the S&amp;P 500 has been about 7.5% during an election year vs. 8% for a non-election year. A bit weaker, but not drastic and still pretty strong.</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>Text appears over gray: 'Myth #2: The stock market is going to crash if candidate so and so wins.'</p> <h2>Shawn Snyder:</h2> <p>There’s no historical evidence that the stock market will crash if a candidate from a particular party wins.</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>A bar graph appears, titled: 'S&amp;P 500 Return Between Election Day and Yearend.' The vertical axis shows percentages ranging from negative 15% to positive 15%, while the horizontal axis shows years ranging from 1960 to 2020. Years '60, '68, '72, '76, '80, '88, '92, '96, '04, '16, and '20 show positive returns ranging from 0.7% in '68 to 11.5% in '20. Most of the other positive years show gains between 3 and 7%. Years '64, '84, 2000, '08, and '12 show negative returns ranging from -0.2% in '12 to -0.5% in '64 and -1.9% in '84. The more dramatic negative return of -7.8% in 2000 is labeled as due to the Bush/Gore contested election and recession in March of 2001. In '08, the negative return of -10.2% is labeled as due to the global financial crisis.</p> <h2>Side note:</h2> <p>Small print text appears.</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>'Sources: Standard and Poor's, Bloomberg Finance L.P. and J.P.Morgan Wealth Management. Data as of December 31, 2020.'</p> <h2>Shawn Snyder:</h2> <p>In fact, since 1960, the average return for the S&amp;P 500 between Election Day and year-end has been 1.9%, with 80% of election years posting positive returns. The worst performance was a 10.2% decline in 2008, but that was largely because of the Global Financial Crisis, not the election.</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>Text appears over gray: &quot;Myth #3: The Federal Reserve doesn't change policy in an election year.&quot;</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>A vertical bar graph appears beside a title: 'Historically, Election Years Have Not Prevented FED Action. Change in FED Funds Rate (BPS).' The vertical axis shows years ranging from 1956 to 2020, and the horizontal axis ranges from negative 4.00 to positive 4.00, with zero in the center. On the negative side, labeled 'Cutting,' are years 1960 (negative 2), 1984 (negative 1.25), 1992 (negative 1.00), 1996 (negative 0.25), 2008 (negative 4.00), and 2020 (negative 1.50). On the positive side, labeled 'Hiking,' are years 1956 (0.50), 1964 (0.50), 1968 (1.50), 1972 (2.00), 1976 (1.00), 1980 (4.00), 1988 (1.87), 2000 (1.00), 2004 (1.25), and 2016 (0.25).</p> <h2>Side note:</h2> <p>Small print text appears.</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>'Sources: Haver using FED Funds Effective Rate from 1954-1984 and the FED target rate from 1984-2024. Data as of 1/5/2024. Data rounded to nearest 12.5bps.'</p> <h2>Shawn Snyder:</h2> <p>Since 1956, 2012 was the only election year that the Fed did not either raise or lower interest rates. We believe that this year will be no different with economics driving the Fed, not politics.</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>A bulleted list appears below a title with a magnifying glass:</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p><strong>KEY TAKEAWAYS</strong></p> <ul> <li>Myth #1: Stocks don't perform well in an election year</li> <li>Myth #2: The stock market is going to crash if so and so candidate wins</li> <li>Myth #3: The Federal Reserve doesn't change policy in an election year</li> </ul> <h2>Shawn Snyder:</h2> <p>For more information, please check out chase.com/theknow.</p> <h2>On Screen:</h2> <p>J.P. Morgan Wealth Management logo.</p> <h2>Side note:</h2> <p>Legal disclosures.</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>The views, opinions, estimates and strategies expressed herein constitutes the speaker's judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice, and may differ from those expressed by other areas of J.P. Morgan. This information in no way constitutes J.P. Morgan Research and should not be treated as such. You should carefully consider your needs and objectives before making any decisions --including whether the services, products, asset classes (e.g. equities, fixed income, alternative investments, commodities, etc.) or strategies discussed are suitable to your needs. You must also consider the objectives, risks, charges, and expenses associated with any investment or financial service, product or strategy prior to making an investment decision. For additional guidance on how this information should be applied to your situation, you should consult your advisor.</p> <p><strong>Investing in securities involves market risk, including possible loss of principal, and there is no guarantee that investment objectives will be achieved. Outlooks and past performance is not a guarantee of future results.</strong></p> <p>Investment in alternative investment strategies is speculative, often involves a greater degree of risk than traditional investments including limited liquidity and limited transparency, among other factors and should only be considered by sophisticated investors with the financial capability to accept the loss of all or part of the assets devoted to such strategies.</p> <p><strong>Asset allocation/diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against loss.</strong></p> <p>J.P. Morgan Wealth Management is a business of JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., which offers investment products and services through J.P. Morgan Securities LLC (JPMS), a registered broker-dealer and investment adviser, member FINRA and SIPC. Insurance products are made available through Chase Insurance Agency, Inc. (CIA), a licensed insurance agency, doing business as Chase Insurance Agency Services, Inc. in Florida. Certain custody and other services are provided by JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. (JPMCB). JPMS, CIA and JPMCB are affiliated companies under the common control of JPMorgan.</p> <p>Copyright {{copyrightCurrentYear}} JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co.</p>

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