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New year nerves: Why we’re still optimisticVideo

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Description: After a strong year-end run, 2024 opened with some jitters. Here’s why you should stay invested.

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Length (seconds): 132

Transcript: <h2>Side note:</h2> <p>Background music plays.</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>This video opens with a woman in a collared shirt and sweater vest, speaking from an office with natural wood accents and plants.</p> <h2>Side note:</h2> <p>A bold disclaimer appears in a text box:</p> <h2>Text on screen:</h2> <p><strong>INVESTMENT AND INSURANCE PRODUCTS:</strong></p> <ul> <li><strong>NOT A DEPOSIT</strong></li> <li><strong>NOT FDIC INSURED</strong></li> <li><strong>NOT INSURED BY ANY FEDERAL GOVERNMENT AGENCY</strong></li> <li><strong>NO BANK GUARANTEE</strong></li> <li><strong>MAY LOSE VALUE</strong></li> </ul> <h2>Elyse Ausenbaugh:</h2> <p>Here are your Top Market Takeaways.</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>A circle with a title expands:</p> <h2>Text on screen:</h2> <p>'Top MARKET TAKEAWAYS'</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>Text appears over the speaker:</p> <h2>Text on screen:</h2> <p><strong>ELYSE AUSENBAUGH</strong></p> <p>Global Investment Strategist</p> <p>J.P. Morgan Wealth Management</p> <p>January 5, 2024</p> <h2>Elyse Ausenbaugh:</h2> <p>2023 was a year that defied expectations in a lot of ways – from the recession that never happened to strong stock market gains. But now’s the time to look ahead. Here are key takeaways from J.P. Morgan Wealth Management’s 2024 Outlook.</p> <h2>Text on screen:</h2> <p>A question appears over gray: 'What's the path for inflation and the Fed?'</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>A pie chart appears beside Elyse, illustrating 75% with icons of houses and buildings in a rounded box.</p> <h2>Elyse Ausenbaugh:</h2> <p>Did you know that shelter prices are attributable for 75% of the latest year-on-year read on inflation, and that higher frequency data suggests a further cool down from here?</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>A line graph appears, titled, 'Inflation has already retreated from multi-decade highs: CPI, YoY, % change.' With percentages from zero to ten on the vertical axis and years from 2017 through 2023 on the horizontal axis, two lines illustrate Advanced Economics and U.S. They travel nearly identical paths, with the U.S. line just above the Advanced Economics line in most data points. The lines start off near the 2% Fed Target line in 2017, remaining mostly steady with a slight dip in early 2019, and a large dip down to zero in mid-2020. From there, they climb steadily from zero to nearly ten per-cent towards the end of 2022. They then start a decline down to where they are now in the middle of year 2023, with Advanced Economics at 4% and the U.S. at 3.2%.</p> <h2>Side note:</h2> <p>Small print text appears.</p> <h2>Text on screen:</h2> <p>'Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics. Data as of October 31, 2023.'</p> <h2>Elyse Ausenbaugh:</h2> <p>Inflation overall has been on a downtrend, and we think it will continue to head towards central bank targets in 2024. To us, that means that the Fed is done hiking and likely to start cutting interest rates in the year ahead.</p> <h2>Text on screen:</h2> <p>Another question appears over gray: 'How can investors capture today's elevated yields for longer?'</p> <h2>Elyse Ausenbaugh:</h2> <p>If the Fed cuts rates, then yields on cash and short-term instruments are headed lower. Reinvestment risk is here. While bond yields have already been on the move, we think investors still have the opportunity to lock in today’s elevated yields…</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>A lock icon appears, unlocking and then locking, and text highlighting Elyse's three points: High Quality, Longer Duration, and Corporate or Municipal Bonds.</p> <h2>Elyse Ausenbaugh:</h2> <p>…by adding to high quality, longer duration corporate or municipal bonds. And while we don’t expect a U.S. recession in 2024, we like that core bonds could add some defensiveness to portfolios if things do go south.</p> <h2>Text on screen:</h2> <p>A question over gray reads: 'Will equities see more upside in 2024 after last year's rally?'</p> <h2>Elyse Ausenbaugh:</h2> <p>Did you know that 5 of the 10 best years in the S&amp;P 500 over the past 30 years have happened against the backdrop of the Fed cutting rates without a recession? Past performance is no indicator of future results, but our base case is calling for rate cuts and no recession.</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>A text box appears with the title:</p> <h2>Text on screen:</h2> <p>'Our Base Case' and two bullet points: 'Rate Cuts, and No 2024 Recession.'</p> <h2>Elyse Ausenbaugh:</h2> <p>We think the U.S. will lead the global equity market in 2024, and we’re finding optimism in the prospects for an S&amp;P 500 earnings recovery alongside tailwinds emanating from themes like artificial intelligence and industrial policy.</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>Two white-lined semi-circles with icons on gray circular backgrounds appear, including brain circuitry, a robotic arm, a laptop, a document, spinning gears, and a scale.</p> <h2>Elyse Ausenbaugh:</h2> <p>We think the S&amp;P 500 can make new all-time highs in 2024.</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>Over a gray background, a bulleted list appears on a white rectan-gle with rounded edges below a title with a magnifying glass:</p> <h2>Text on screen:</h2> <p><strong>KEY TAKEAWAYS</strong></p> <ul> <li>Bonds are more competitive with stocks–- adjust the mix according to your ambitions</li> <li>With AI momentum, equities seem to be on the march to new heights</li> <li>Pockets of credit stress loom, but they will likely be limited</li> </ul> <h2>Elyse Ausenbaugh:</h2> <p>To learn more about our 2024 Outlook and its key considerations for investors, please visit chase.com/theknow.</p> <h2>On screen logo:</h2> <p>J.P.Morgan WEALTH MANAGEMENT.</p> <h2>Side note:</h2> <p>Legal disclosures.</p> <h2>Text on screen:</h2> <p>The views, opinions, estimates and strategies expressed herein constitutes the speaker's judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice, and may differ from those expressed by other areas of J.P. Morgan. This information in no way constitutes J.P. Morgan Research and should not be treated as such. You should carefully consider your needs and objectives before making any decisions --including whether the services, products, asset classes (e.g. equities, fixed income, alternative investments, commodities, etc.) or strategies discussed are suitable to your needs. You must also consider the objectives, risks, charges, and expenses associated with any investment or financial service, product or strategy prior to making an investment decision. For additional guidance on how this information should be applied to your situation, you should consult your advisor.</p> <p><strong>Investing in securities involves market risk, including possible loss of principal, and there is no guarantee that investment objectives will be achieved. Outlooks and past performance is not a guarantee of future results.</strong></p> <p>Bonds are subject to interest rate risk, credit and default risk of the issuer. Bond prices generally fall when interest rates rise.</p> <p>Investors should understand the potential tax liabilities surrounding a municipal bond purchase. Certain municipal bonds are federally taxed if the holder is subject to alternative minimum tax. Capital gains, if any, are federally taxable. The investor should note that the income from tax-free municipal bond funds may be subject to state and local taxation and the Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT).</p> <p>Investment in alternative investment strategies is speculative, often involves a greater degree of risk than traditional investments including limited liquidity and limited transparency, among other factors and should only be considered by sophisticated investors with the financial capability to accept the loss of all or part of the assets devoted to such strategies.</p> <p><strong>Asset allocation/diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against loss.</strong></p> <p>J.P. Morgan Wealth Management is a business of JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., which offers investment products and services through J.P. Morgan Securities LLC (JPMS), a registered broker-dealer and investment adviser, member FINRA and SIPC. Insurance products are made available through Chase Insurance Agency, Inc. (CIA), a licensed insurance agency, doing business as Chase Insurance Agency Services, Inc. in Florida. Certain custody and other services are provided by JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. (JPMCB). JPMS, CIA and JPMCB are affiliated companies under the common control of JPMorgan.</p> <p>Standard and Poor’s 500 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks. The index is designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries. The index was developed with a base level of 10 for the 1941–43 base period. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.</p> <p>All market and economic data as of 12/01/2023 are sourced from Bloomberg Finance L.P. and FactSet unless otherwise stated.</p> <p>Copyright {{copyrightCurrentYear}} JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co.</p>

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