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CWM - Top Market Takeaways 02.02.24Video

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Video ADA Text: Groundhog Day: What can investors learn from the past? video

Transcript Browser Title: Video transcript: Groundhog Day: What can investors learn from the past? video

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English

Video Id: 6346012394112

Audio Description Video Id: 6346014053112

Length (seconds): 117

Transcript: <h2>Side note:<br /> </h2> <p>Background music plays.</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>This video opens on a man wearing a sweater over a collared shirt, in an office with plants and natural wood accents.</p> <h2>Side note:</h2> <p>A bold disclaimer appears in a text box:</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p><strong>INVESTMENT AND INSURANCE PRODUCTS:</strong></p> <ul> <li>NOT A DEPOSIT</li> <li>NOT FDIC INSURED</li> <li>NOT INSURED BY ANY FEDERAL GOVERNMENT AGENCY</li> <li>NO BANK GUARANTEE</li> <li>MAY LOSE VALUE</li> </ul> <h2>Ajene Oden:</h2> <p>Here are your Top Market Takeaways.</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>A circle with a title expands:</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>Top <strong>MARKET TAKEAWAYS</strong></p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>Text appears over the speaker:</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>Ajene Oden</p> <p>Global Investment Strategist, J.P. Morgan Wealth Management</p> <p>February 2nd, 2024</p> <h2>Ajene Oden:</h2> <p>The S&amp;P 500 has notched higher multiple times in 2024 after going two years without reaching or exceeding its previous high. The move has likely left many investors questioning what’s behind it and what does it mean for their investments. So, let’s dig into it!</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>Text appears over gray: 'What's driving the S&amp;P 500 higher?'</p> <h2>Ajene Oden:</h2> <p>Many U.S. economic indicators are back to their pre-COVID levels and labor markets have normalized. Notably, inflation is tracking in line with the Fed’s 2% target. However, the Fed hasn’t moved interest rates lower just yet. The rally higher comes as markets appear to be pricing in the potential for rate cuts from the Fed later this year. This isn’t the only tailwind though.</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>A line graph appears, titled: 'What drives stocks? In the long run, earnings. S&amp;P 500 Index.' The vertical axis on the left ranges from numbers 500 to 5000, while the vertical axis on the right has num-bers ranging from 50 to 275. The horizontal axis has dates ranging from '04 to '24. A purple line representing Price Level corresponds to the left axis. It starts around a thousand, dips close to 500 around '09, then rises somewhat steadily until it has a dip in '20. Then it rises again until '22, dips a bit in '23, and rises back to about 4500 in '24. An orange line representing Earnings Expecta-tions corresponds to the right axis. It starts between 50 and 75 and generally follows the same trajectory as the price level line, with dips in '09 and '20. Like the price level line, it peaks in '22, dips slightly in '23, and rises up to nearly 250 in '24.</p> <h2>Side note:</h2> <p>In small print:</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>'Source: FactSet. Earnings expectations represent FactSet consensus estimates for the next 12 months. Data as of January 19, 2024. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.'</p> <h2>Ajene Oden:</h2> <p>Corporate earnings, another key driver of the rally, will need to do their part as well. Our current forecast expects 8.5% earnings per share growth this year, followed by more growth in 2025.</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>Text appears over gray: 'Is it too late to get invested?'</p> <h2>Ajene Oden:</h2> <p>Using history purely as a guide, going back to 1970, if you invested in the S&amp;P 500 at an all-time high, your investment a year later would be higher over 70% of the time with an average return of 9.4%.</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>A title over a data box reads: 'Investing in the S&amp;P 500 During All-Time Highs.' In the box, an arrow leads from Year 1 to Year 2. Two bullet points below read: 'Higher returns 70% of the time,' and, '9.4% average return.'</p> <h2>Side note:</h2> <p>In small print:</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>'EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY: This example is intended to educate investors of the potential benefits of early investing for the long term - using a 9.4% return assumption for illustrative purposes. This example does not reflect any investment, strategy or portfolio, and is not a guarantee of future results.'</p> <h2>Ajene Oden:</h2> <p>We’ve also noticed that all-time highs can come in bunches and may be a signal of more good times to come. However, don’t be surprised if volatility abounds in case individual data points disappoint or surprise markets. It’s important to know past performance isn't indicative of future results.</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>Text appears over gray: 'What does this mean for excess cash positions?'</p> <h2>Ajene Oden:</h2> <p>Cash has its place in portfolios. And while many investors benefit-ed from rolling T-bills, we believe it’s time for clients to reconsider holding excess cash.</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>A line reading 'Interest Rate Cuts' balances on an icon showing a graph with a down-pointing arrow. The line tips to the left.</p> <h2>Ajene Oden:</h2> <p>When the Fed does cut interest rates, it may likely lead to a decline in cash yields.</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>The icon becomes a dollar sign, and the line tips to the right, now reading: 'Decline in Cash Yields.'</p> <h2>Ajene Oden:</h2> <p>Given the prospects for cuts on the horizon, we believe that stocks and bonds may outperform cash this year. And investors should discuss this potential opportunity with their advisor.</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>A bulleted list appears below a title with a magnifying glass:</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p><strong>KEY TAKEAWAYS</strong></p> <ul> <li>Since 1970, stocks have been higher one year after reaching all-time highs 70% of the time, with an average return of 9.4%.</li> <li>The Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates this year following better than anticipated progress on inflation.</li> <li>Remember your long-term goals and consider reallocating ex-cess cash positions.</li> </ul> <h2>Ajene Oden:</h2> <p>To learn more, please visit chase.com/theknow.</p> <h2>On Screen:</h2> <p>A logo appears over gray:</p> <p>J.P.Morgan WEALTH MANAGEMENT.</p> <h2>Side note:</h2> <p>Legal disclosures.</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>The views, opinions, estimates and strategies expressed herein constitutes the speaker's judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice, and may differ from those expressed by other areas of J.P. Morgan. This information in no way constitutes J.P. Morgan research and should not be treated as such. You should carefully consider your needs and objectives before making any decisions --including whether the services, products, asset classes (e.g. equities, fixed income, alternative investments, commodities, etc.) or strategies discussed are suitable to your needs. You must also consider the objectives, risks, charges, and expenses associated with any investment or financial service, product or strategy prior to making an investment decision. For additional guidance on how this information should be applied to your situation, you should consult your advisor.</p> <h2>Side note:</h2> <p>A disclosure in bold reads:</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p><strong>Investing in securities involves market risk, including possible loss of principal, and there is no guarantee that investment objectives will be achieved. Outlooks and past performance is not a guarantee of future results.</strong></p> <h2>Side note:</h2> <p>Another disclosure in regular font continues:</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>Investment in alternative investment strategies is speculative, often involves a greater degree of risk than traditional investments including limited liquidity and limited transparency, among other factors and should only be considered by sophisticated investors with the financial capability to accept the loss of all or part of the assets devoted to such strategies.</p> <h2>Side note:</h2> <p>In bold:</p> <p><strong>Asset allocation/diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against loss.</strong></p> <h2>Side note:</h2> <p>The final disclosure in regular font reads:</p> <p>J.P. Morgan Wealth Management is a business of JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., which offers investment products and services through J.P. Morgan Securities LLC (JPMS), a registered broker-dealer and investment adviser, member FINRA and SIPC. Insurance products are made available through Chase Insurance Agency, Inc. (CIA), a licensed insurance agency, doing business as Chase Insurance Agency Services, Inc. in Florida. Certain custody and other services are provided by JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. (JPMCB). JPMS, CIA and JPMCB are affiliated companies under the common control of JPMorgan.</p> <p>Copyright {{copyrightCurrentYear}} JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co.</p>

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