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Back to school: 3 principles for your portfolioVideo

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Transcript Browser Title: Video transcript: Back to school: 3 principles for your portfolio

Description: As we prepare to say so long to summer and hello to a potential September rate cut, we review some investing basics for the year ahead.

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Video Id: 6360825609112

Audio Description Video Id: 6360826179112

Length (seconds): 132

Transcript: <h2>Note:</h2> <p>Background music plays.</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>This video opens on a woman wearing a light pink blouse and a thin necklace.</p> <h2>Note:</h2> <p>A disclaimer appears in a text box:</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>INVESTMENT AND INSURANCE PRODUCTS:</p> <ul> <li><p><strong>NOT A DEPOSIT</strong></p> </li> <li><p><strong>NOT FDIC INSURED</strong></p> </li> <li><p><strong>NOT INSURED BY ANY FEDERAL GOVERNMENT AGENCY</strong></p> </li> <li><p><strong>NO BANK GUARANTEE</strong></p> </li> <li><p><strong>MAY LOSE VALUE</strong></p> </li> </ul> <h2>Rebecca Boeve:</h2> <p>Here are your Top Market Takeaways.</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>A circle with a title expands:</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>Top <strong>MARKET TAKEAWAYS</strong></p> <p>AUGUST 23, 2024</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>An identifying text box appears over the speaker:</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p><strong>REBECCA BOEVE</strong></p> <p>GLOBAL INVESTMENT STRATEGIST,</p> <p>J.P. MORGAN WEALTH MANAGEMENT</p> <h2>Rebecca Boeve:</h2> <p>After a string of weak economic data in early August, all eyes were on the July CPI report.</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>A question appears over gray: Why does the July CPI report matter?</p> <h2>Rebecca Boeve:</h2> <p>Investors were seeking to confirm expectation that the Fed is on track to cut interest rates in September. The Fed's dual mandate is one, low and stable prices, and two, maximum employment.</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>Text appears in a large box beside Mrs. Boeve:</p> <p>Fed's dual mandate</p> <h2>Note:</h2> <p>(With a downward-pointing arrow).</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>Low and stable prices</p> <p>Maximum employment</p> <h2>Note:</h2> <p>(With an upward-pointing arrow).</p> <h2>Rebecca Boeve:</h2> <p>With the weak July employment report in hand, the market needed confirmation that the inflation side of the mandate continues to decelerate.</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>A question appears over gray: What factors contributed to July's CPI increase?</p> <h2>Rebecca Boeve:</h2> <p>Investors can return to their summer vacations, as the Consumer Price Index came in line with expectation and the rate of increases continues to slow. Both headline and core CPI increased 0.2% month-over-month. Annually, core inflation increased 3.2% year-over-year.</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>A horizontal line graph appears, titled, 'Core CPI continues to decelerate: 3 cuts of CPI. Core CPI 3, 6, 12 month percent annualized.' The vertical axis shows, from bottom to top, percentages ranging from negative 6 to 12 (in increments of three). The horizontal axis shows from left to right, dates ranging from 2015 to 2023 (in increments of two) – with data for 2024. A dark blue line, marked '3 month', reads about 1% in 2015; about 2% in 2017; about 2.5% in 2019; down sharply to around negative 3% in 2020; up sharply to around 9% in to 2021; down to about 4% in 2023; and at 1.6% in 2024. A light blue line, marked '6 month', reads about 1% in 2015 and 2017; about 2% in 2019; down sharply to about 0% in 2020; up, sharply, to around 3% in 2021; up to about 5% in 2023; and at 2.8% in 2024. An orange line, marked '12 month', reads between about 1.5% and 2% from 2015 to 2019; about 1% in 2021; up to about 6% in 2023; and at 3.2% in 2024.</p> <h2>Note:</h2> <p>Small text below the graph reads:</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>Source: Haver Analytics. Data as of July 31, 2024.</p> <h2>Rebecca Boeve:</h2> <p>While yes, this is still above the Fed's target, this is the slowest reading since April 2021. Under the hood, used autos and airfare declined the most.</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>Text appears in a large box beside Mrs. Boeve:</p> <p>Used</p> <p>autos airfare</p> <p>(down) 1.5% YoY</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>Illustrations show a car, an airplane, and a downward pointing arrow.</p> <h2>Rebecca Boeve:</h2> <p>On the flip side, shelter inflation rebounded on the month, up 0.4% vs a low reading of 0.2% in June.</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>A bar graph appears, titled, 'Shelter disinflation is still underway. MoM Percent Rent of Shelter CPI' The vertical axis shows, from bottom to top, percentages ranging from negative 0.1 to 0.8. The horizontal axis shows, from left to right, dates ranging from July 2019 to July 2024 (in monthly July and January increments). Blue bars show shelter inflation below 0.4% until around July 2021, and rising to about 0.7% in July 2022 and early 2023. It decreases, irregularly, to 0.2% around June 2024 and then 0.34% in July 2024. A purple horizontal line, indicating monthly average, is marked 0.27.</p> <h2>Note:</h2> <p>Small text below the graph reads:</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., data as of July 31, 2024.</p> <h2>Rebecca Boeve:</h2> <p>In general, we still see shelter inflation on a downward path, but the data is a reminder that the process is slow moving.</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>Another question appears over gray: What does the CPI report mean for investors?</p> <h2>Rebecca Boeve:</h2> <p>We continue to expect the Fed to cut 25 basis points in September with risks skewed to 50 basis points depending on the August unemployment report. As a fixed income strategy, clients might consider a neutral duration positioning which could be balanced between 3-year corporate credit duration as spreads aren't compensative in the long end, as well as long duration in municipal bonds to potentially take advantage of lower interest rates.</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>Text appears in a large box beside Mrs. Boeve:</p> <p>Neutral Duration Positioning</p> <p>01</p> <p>~<strong>3Y corporate credit duration </strong>as spreads aren't compensative in the long end</p> <p>02</p> <p><strong>Long duration in municipal bonds </strong>to potentially take advantage of lower interest rates</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>An illustration of a measuring scale is above the text. A bulleted list appears below a title with a magnifying glass:</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p><strong>KEY TAKEAWAYS</strong></p> <ul> <li>July CPI came in line with expectations and continues to decelerate.</li> <li>Both headline and core CPI increased 0.2% Month over Month. Annually, core inflation increased 3.2% Year over Year; while still above the Federal Reserve's target, it's the slowest reading since April 2021.</li> <li>We continue to expect the Fed to cut 25 bps in September with risks skewed to 50 bps in cuts depending on the August unemployment report.</li> </ul> <h2>Rebecca Boeve:</h2> <p>For more information, please visit chase.com/theknow.</p> <h2>On screen logo:</h2> <p>A logo appears over gray: J.P. Morgan WEALTH MANAGEMENT.</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>To learn more, visit chase.com/theknow</p> <h2>Note:</h2> <p>Legal disclaimers.</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>All market and economic data are sourced from Bloomberg Finance L.P. and FactSet unless otherwise stated.</p> <p>The views, opinions, estimates and strategies expressed herein constitutes the speaker's judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice, and may differ from those expressed by other areas of J.P. Morgan. This information in no way constitutes J.P. Morgan research and should not be treated as such. You should carefully consider your needs and objectives before making any decisions --including whether the services, products, asset classes (e.g. equities, fixed income, alternative investments, commodities, etc.) or strategies discussed are suitable to your needs. You must also consider the objectives, risks, charges, and expenses associated with any investment or financial service, product or strategy prior to making an investment decision. For additional guidance on how this information should be applied to your situation, you should consult your advisor.</p> <p>Investing in securities involves market risk, including possible loss of principal, and there is no guarantee that investment objectives will be achieved.</p> <h2>Note:</h2> <p>A disclaimer reads:</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p><strong>Outlooks and past performance is not a guarantee of future results.</strong></p> <p><strong>Past performance is no guarantee of future results.</strong></p> <h2>Note:</h2> <p>The final disclaimers read:</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>It is not possible to invest directly in an index.</p> <p>Asset allocation/diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against loss.</p> <p>J.P. Morgan Wealth Management is a business of JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., which offers investment products and services through <strong>J.P. Morgan Securities LLC</strong> (JPMS), a registered broker-dealer and investment adviser, member FINRA and SIPC. Insurance products are made available through Chase Insurance Agency, Inc. (CIA), a licensed insurance agency, doing business as Chase Insurance Agency Services, Inc. in Florida. Certain custody and other services are provided by JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. (JPMCB). JPMS, CIA and JPMCB are affiliated companies under the common control of JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. Products not available in all states.</p> <p>Copyright {{copyrightCurrentYear}} JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co.</p>

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