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Geopolitical unrest: Assessing market implicationsVideo

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Video ADA Text: Geopolitical unrest: Assessing market implications

Transcript Browser Title: Geopolitical unrest: Assessing market implications

Description: As tensions in the Middle East have escalated recently, what does that mean for the economic and market landscape? Plus, our Top Market Takeaways video considers whether the Fed could slash interest rates later this year.

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Video Id: 6351178099112

Audio Description Video Id: 6351178763112

Length (seconds): 100

Transcript: <h2>Side note:</h2> <p>Background music plays.</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>This video opens on a man wearing a J.P. Morgan vest over a collared shirt, in an office with plants and natural wood accents.</p> <h2>Side note:</h2> <p>A bold disclaimer appears in a text box:</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p><strong>INVESTMENT AND INSURANCE PRODUCTS:</strong></p> <ul> <li><strong>NOT A DEPOSIT</strong></li> <li><strong>NOT FDIC INSURED</strong></li> <li><strong>NOT INSURED BY ANY FEDERAL GOVERNMENT AGENCY</strong></li> <li><strong>NO BANK GUARANTEE</strong></li> <li><strong>MAY LOSE VALUE</strong></li> </ul> <p>Here are your Top Market Takeaways.</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>A circle with a title expands:</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>Top <strong>MARKET TAKEAWAYS</strong></p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>Text appears over the speaker:</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p><strong>AJENE ODEN</strong></p> <p>Global Investment Strategist</p> <p>J.P. Morgan Wealth Management</p> <p>April 19th, 2024.</p> <h2>AJ Oden:</h2> <p>Three consecutive hotter than anticipated inflation prints and a 3-month average of non-farm payrolls climbing to 276,000, may have caused some to question whether the Fed will cut interest rates this year at all. So, let's dive deeper into it.</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>A question appears over gray: 'What if the Fed doesn't cut rates this year?'</p> <h2>AJ Oden:</h2> <p>In a scenario where inflation remains elevated, U.S. growth is stronger and the Fed is unable to cut interest rates, we may see a modest fall in stock prices and a further rise in yields and commodity prices.</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>Animated icons on either side of him show 'Stocks' with a down arrow and 'Yields &amp; Commodities' with an up arrow.</p> <h2>AJ Oden:</h2> <p>The good news is we don't believe this to be the most probable outcome, but still a scenario we are monitoring in case economic data continues to surprise to the upside.</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>Another question appears over gray: 'So, what do these hotter than anticipated inflation prints mean for you?'</p> <h2>AJ Oden:</h2> <p>We see stronger U.S. growth as a good thing that could push corporate earnings higher.</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>Text appears beside Ajene: 'PCE: Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index'</p> <h2>AJ Oden:</h2> <p>Also, the Fed's preferred indicator, Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, or PCE, a more stable read of inflation, is much closer to their 2% target than the Consumer Price Index and wage growth has continued to normalize. We also expect the Fed's next move to be a cut and not a hike. That's a big difference from a year ago when markets were considering additional rate hikes.</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>A graph appears, titled: 'Despite intra-year swings, stocks tend to reward investors.' The subheading reads: 'S&amp;P 500 intra-year declines (max drawdowns) and calendar year price returns.' On the bar graph, the vertical axis displays percentages from negative 55% to positive 35%, and the horizontal axis spans from years '80 to '24. Each bar represents 'Calendar Year Return,' and a series of points mark 'Intra-year max drawdown.' Only 8 years show negative percentages (81, 90, 2000, 01, 02, 08, 18, and 22), with '08 being the most dramatic at 35%. The remaining years remain positive, with late nineties standing out as the highest percentages, followed by the mid and late teens. The most recent bar is at about 10%.</p> <h2>Side note:</h2> <p>Small print text appears.</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>Sources: FactSet, Standard and Poor's, J.P. Morgan Asset Management - Guide to the Markets. Returns are based on price index only and do not include dividends. Intra-year drops refer to the largest market drops from a peak to a trough during the year. Return shown are calendar year returns from 1980 to present year. Data as of April 12, 2024.'</p> <h2>AJ Oden:</h2> <p>While an intra-year pullback would not be uncommon, we find it encouraging that equity markets have finished the year positive 75% of the time since 1980. We don't expect this year to be any different, but would remind investors that diversified portfolios may help reduce risk. As always, your team at J.P. Morgan is here to help.</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>A bulleted list appears below a title with a magnifying glass:</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p><strong>KEY TAKEAWAYS</strong></p> <p>Stronger U.S. growth is a good thing but may come with added volatility if economic data continues to surprise to the upside</p> <p>We still expect the Fed's next move to be a policy cut and see cuts starting later this year</p> <p>Consider discussing a broad asset class mix and diversification within fixed income with your advisor</p> <h2>AJ Oden:</h2> <p>To learn more, please visit chase.com/theknow.</p> <h2>On Screen:</h2> <p>J.P.Morgan Wealth Management logo.</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>To learn more, please visit chase.com/theknow.</p> <h2>Side note:</h2> <p>Legal disclosures.</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>All market and economic data are sourced from Bloomberg Finance L.P. and FactSet unless otherwise stated.</p> <p>The views, opinions, estimates and strategies expressed herein constitutes the speaker's judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice, and may differ from those expressed by other areas of J.P. Morgan. This information in no way constitutes J.P. Morgan research and should not be treated as such. You should carefully consider your needs and objectives before making any decisions --including whether the services, products, asset classes (e.g. equities, fixed income, alternative investments, commodities, etc.) or strategies discussed are suitable to your needs. You must also consider the objectives, risks, charges, and expenses associated with any investment or financial service, product or strategy prior to making an investment decision. For additional guidance on how this information should be applied to your situation, you should consult your advisor.</p> <h2>Side note:</h2> <p>A disclosure in bold reads:</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p><strong>Investing in securities involves market risk, including possible loss of principal, and there is no guarantee that investment objectives will be achieved. Outlooks and past performance is not a guarantee of future results.</strong></p> <h2>Side note:</h2> <p>Another disclosure in bold reads:</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p><strong>Asset allocation/diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against loss.</strong></p> <h2>Side note:</h2> <p>The final disclosure in regular font reads:</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>J.P. Morgan Wealth Management is a business of JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., which offers investment products and services through <strong>J.P. Morgan Securities LLC</strong> (JPMS), a registered broker-dealer and investment adviser, member FINRA and SIPC. Insurance products are made available through Chase Insurance Agency, Inc. (CIA), a licensed insurance agency, doing business as Chase Insurance Agency Services, Inc. in Florida. Certain custody and other services are provided by JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. (JPMCB). JPMS, CIA and JPMCB are affiliated companies under the common control of JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. Products not available in all states.</p> <p>Copyright {{copyrightCurrentYear}} JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co.</p>

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