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Anthony Chan Summer Economic OutlookVideo

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Transcript Browser Title: 2017 Summer Economic Commentary Transcript

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Transcript: <p><b>2017 Summer Economic Commentary Transcript</b><br> </p> <p>Intro Text:<br> J.P. Morgan</p> <p>Boxed Disclosure: INVESTMENT PRODUCTS ARE: NOT FDIC INSURED, NOT A DEPOSIT OR OTHER OBLIGATION OF, OR GUARANTEED BY, JPMORGAN CHASE BANK, N.A. OR ANY OF ITS AFFILIATES, SUBJECT TO INVESTMENT RISKS, INCLUDING POSSIBLE LOSS OF THE PRINCIPAL AMOUNT INVESTED&nbsp; &nbsp;</p> <p>Title Card: Summer Economic Commentary</p> <p>A Time for Patience</p> <p>Lower Third: Anthony Chan, PhD Chief Economist, Chase &nbsp;</p> <p>Hello, I’m Doctor Anthony Chan. Welcome to our Summer Economic Commentary. Today, we’ll talk about the need to stay patient in the face of mixed economic data and to wait for expected growth to pick up later this year and into next year. &nbsp;</p> <p>Divider Slide:&nbsp; A positive outlook &nbsp;</p> <p>The overall outlook for the US economy is quite positive. Yes, economic growth was sluggish in the first calendar quarter. But, historically, if you go back to 2010, the first calendar quarter has average growth of about 1%. The subsequent three calendar quarters have average growth of about 2 1/2 %. We expect that 2017 will be no different. In fact, in the 2nd quarter, we expect stronger economic growth to carry us through to the end of the year and give us overall economic growth for the year of close to 2%. &nbsp;</p> <p>Divider Slide: “Soft Data vs. Hard data” &nbsp;</p> <p>The surge in the equity market after the elections was clearly justified. And, the reason for that is that you have two types of economic data. There is the soft economic data. And, of course, that’s measured by consumer confidence and business confidence. And then you have the hard economic data, which is the actual numbers such as consumer spending or manufacturing activity. What we saw after the election is (chart: soft data vs. hard data) was that this soft data captured by consumer confidence and business confidence was clearly very strong. And historically, whatever happens in the soft economic data impacts the overall economy 6 to 9 months into the future. &nbsp;</p> <p>Divider Slide: Waiting for tax cuts &nbsp;</p> <p>At this point, investors are becoming a bit impatient over the president’s pro-business agenda. Why is that? Because they find that it’s taking too long to pass legislation relative to what investors were promised. But the good news for investors is that a lot of the agenda will get passed. Yes, Washington has proposed lowering the corporate tax rate to 15%. And, we may not get 15%, but will likely get a lowering of the corporate tax rate.</p> <p>Divider slide:&nbsp; The Fed stays on course &nbsp;</p> <p>The Federal Reserve is also looking at the economic numbers. And, what they find is that the economy in the United States is gaining vigor. The Federal Reserve is likely to respond to the renewed vigor in the economy by continuing to raise short-term interest rates gradually. Not only in 2017, but also in 2018.</p> <p>&nbsp;Divider Slide: Global growth picks up &nbsp;</p> <p>The US economy is driven by more than what we see happening in Washington DC. What you see in Europe is that economic growth is going to get closer to 2% growth in 2017. What you’re seeing in China is that an economy that was under pressure at the beginning of 2016, and ended up stabilizing towards the end of the year, and this year will continue to growth closer to 6.6%.</p> <p>Divider Slide: What this means for you &nbsp;</p> <p>The lesson for investors is quite clear. Don’t overreact to variations in the quarterly economic numbers. Stay focused on your long-term goals and your investment strategy. Yes, the bull market is near record highs. But, with global economic activity starting to pick up, we believe that this bull market still has room to run. &nbsp;</p> <p>Outro Text: J.P. Morgan</p> <p>Disclosure:</p> <p>Investing involves market risk, including possible loss of principal, and there is no guarantee that investment objectives will be achieved. &nbsp;</p> <p>This video and its content have been developed for J.P. Morgan Securities LLC clients and prospects, is for informational and educational purposes only, and is designed to provide general market commentary and information relating to certain services offered by J.P. Morgan Securities LLC, an affiliate of JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. Opinions expressed herein are those of Anthony Chan and may differ from those of other J.P. Morgan employees and affiliates. The information in no way constitutes J.P. Morgan research and should not be trusted as such. Further, the views expressed herein may differ<br> from that contained in J.P. Morgan research reports.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>The information and views expressed are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. You should carefully consider your needs and objectives before making any decisions. For specific guidance on how this information should be applied to your situation, you should consult your Advisor. Investments in international or emerging markets can be more volatile and involve a greater degree of risk. &nbsp;</p> <p>“Chase Private Client” is the brand name for a banking and investment product and service offering.</p> <p>Bank deposit accounts, such as checking and savings, may be subject to approval. Deposit products and related services are offered by JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. Member FDIC. &nbsp;</p> <p>Certain bank managed advisory products and related services, such as custody services, are offered by JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. and its affiliates. These assets are segregated by law and are not subject to FDIC or SIPC coverage. Other investment products and services are offered through <b>J.P. Morgan Securities LLC (JPMS)</b>, a member of FINRA and SIPC. JPMS is an affiliate of JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. Products not available in all states. &nbsp;</p> <p>®2017 JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co.</p>

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