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Bird’s Eye View: The virus, the vaccine and the light at the end of the tunnelVideo

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Video ADA Text: Bird’s Eye View: The virus, the vaccine and the light at the end of the tunnel video

Transcript Browser Title: Video transcript: Bird’s Eye View: The virus, the vaccine and the light at the end of the tunnel video

Description: It’s no secret that the virus took a toll on the economy. But since last summer, we’ve actually seen a meaningful rebound in economic activity on the whole. Find out how in this informative video.

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Length (seconds): 171

Transcript: <h2>Note:</h2> <p>Legal disclosures appear.</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>Investment and Insurance Products:</p> <ul> <li>Not a Deposit</li> <li>Not FDIC Insured</li> <li>No Bank Guarantee</li> <li>May Lose Value</li> <li>Not Insured by Any Federal Government Agency</li> </ul> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>J.P. Morgan Wealth Management logo.</p> <h2>Note:</h2> <p>Gentle synth music plays.</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>A woman with light brown hair and blue eyes, Elyse Ausenbaugh, speaks from her office.</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>Elyse Ausenbaugh, Global Market Strategist, J.P. Morgan Wealth Management.</p> <h2>Elyse:</h2> <p>We're not far into 2021, but every day is starting to feel like 2020 all over again. While we might be stuck in Groundhog Day today, we believe a recovery is on the way. Let's take a look at the bird's eye view.</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>Bird's Eye View. The virus, the vaccine and the light at the end of the tunnel.</p> <h2>Note:</h2> <p>Soft digital music plays.</p> <h2>Elyse:</h2> <p>It's no secret that the virus and its associated containment measures took a toll on the economy. But since last summer, we've actually seen a meaningful rebound in economic activity on the whole. A lot of that has to do with the massive amount of fiscal support delivered by the government. Through multiple rounds of stimulus that included beefed-up employment benefits, support for businesses, and direct payouts to households, the United States actually managed to break the relationship between economic activity and personal incomes, even as millions of people lost their jobs.</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>In the U.S., fiscal relief broke the relationship between economic activity and income – Household incomes actually increased during the economic recession.</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>A chart labeled &quot;Fiscal Support in the U.S. is Crucial to Economic Recovery&quot; shows GDP and Personal Income (using year over year change %) at about:</p> <ul> <li>5% in 1960;</li> <li>12% in 1980;</li> <li>2% in 2000;</li> <li>(and) negative 3% in 2010.</li> </ul> <p>In 2020, the GDP dropped as low as about negative 8% while Personal Income rose to just over 10 percent.</p> <h2>Note:</h2> <p>Small print text appears.</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, NBER, Haver Analytics. Data is as of September 30th, 2020.</p> <h2>Elyse:</h2> <p>That means that consumers have still had money in their pockets to spend. But there's a catch: there are only so many places they've been able to spend it given ongoing restrictions on activities like travel, dining, and entertainment. The result: consumers have shifted their spending to areas like e-commerce and housing, which have boomed and done a loft of the heavy lifting for the economy as a whole, as you can see here.</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>There has been significant sector dispersion as the broad economy has recovered.</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>A bar chart appears labeled &quot;Percent change (sales, spending, count) from December 31st, 2019.&quot; The chart shows:</p> <ul> <li>Recreational vehicles at 36%;</li> <li>Online retail at 30%;</li> <li>New home sales at 15%;</li> <li>(and) Retail auto spending at 8%.</li> </ul> <h2>Elyse:</h2> <p>Now the unfortunate reality is that the high-contact sectors will continue to struggle so long as we're grappling with the pandemic.</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>The chart shows:</p> <ul> <li>Office construction at negative 3%;</li> <li>Restaurant spending at negative 18%;</li> <li>Transportation services at negative 27%;</li> <li>Hotels and motels spending at negative 62%;</li> <li>(and) Oil rig count at negative 64%.</li> </ul> <h2>Note:</h2> <p>Small print text appears.</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>Sources: Census Bureau, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Data as of December 31st, 2020. (The percent change is calculated based on sales, spending, and count levels for the metrics provided.</p> <h2>Elyse:</h2> <p>But thanks to the ingenuity of the Global Healthcare Community, we can see the light at the end of the tunnel.</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>A montage shows Healthcare professionals filling syringes&nbsp; with COVID-19 vaccine.</p> <h2>Elyse:</h2> <p>Not only have multiple COVID-19 vaccines been approved, but they actually turned out to be more effective than most expected them to be. Now of course, it's a matter of getting enough of the population vaccinated to push the infection rate low enough and allow us to return back to our normal lives. The good news: that looks probable by the end of September 2021, if not by this summer.</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>Vaccine probabilities have surged.</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>A chart appears, labeled &quot;When will enough doses of COVID-19 vaccines to inoculate 200 million people be distributed in the U.S.? <em>Good Judgement </em>probability percent.&quot; The charts shows five probabilities (from January 2021) projecting:</p> <ul> <li>&quot;Before April 1st, 2021&quot; at about 1%;</li> <li>&quot;Not before January 1st 2022&quot; at about 1%;</li> <li>&quot;Between October 1st 2021 and December 31st 2021&quot; - at about 5%;</li> <li>&quot;Between April 1st 2021 and June 30th 2021&quot; at about 30% and (highlighted) &quot;Between July 1st 2021 and September 30th 2021&quot; at over 60%.</li> </ul> <h2>Note:</h2> <p>Small print text appears.</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>Sources: <em>Good Judgement</em> in association with <em>The Economist as of January 11th, 2021.</em></p> <h2>Elyse:</h2> <p>So, as vaccine distribution continues and helps move us towards a post-pandemic world, the recovery will broaden out and the economy will continue to heal. That bodes when for what we call &quot;cyclical&quot; areas of the market. Which, to be clear, haven't recovered yet, but could enjoy a catch-up trade.</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>Over the past year there's been significant dispersion in the stock market.</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>A chart appears labeled:</p> <p>&nbsp;&quot;MSCI World sector price indices (Indexed: December 31st, 2019 = 100).&quot;</p> <p>It shows, at the end of&nbsp; December 2020:</p> <ul> <li>Information Technology at nearly 150;</li> <li>Health Care at just over 110;</li> <li>Financials at about 100;</li> <li>(and) Energy at about 70.</li> </ul> <h2>Note:</h2> <p>Small print text appears.</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>Source: FactSet. Data as of January 8th, 2021.</p> <h2>Elyse:</h2> <p>We like the idea of balancing exposure to those areas with megatrends like&nbsp; digital transformation, healthcare innovation, and sustainability, which we think are going to continue to thrive regardless of whether or not the pandemic is an issue in the future. The bottom line: we're still in the midst of dark days, but the future looks brighter. And we can embrace that optimism by getting invested.</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>J.P. Morgan Wealth Management logo.</p> <h2>Note:</h2> <p>Legal disclosures appear.</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>Investing involves market risk, including possible loss of principal, and there is no guarantee that investment objectives will be achieved.</p> <p><strong>Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.</strong></p> <p>Nothing in this document shall be construed as giving rise to any duty of care owed to, or advisory relationship with, you or any third party. Nothing in this document shall be regarded as an offer, solicitation, recommendation or advice (whether financial, accounting, legal, tax or other) given by J.P. Morgan and/or its officers or employees, irrespective of whether or not such communication was given at your request. J.P. Morgan and its affiliates and employees do not provide tax, legal or accounting advice. You should consult your own tax, legal and accounting advisors before engaging in any financial transactions.</p> <p>The price of equity securities may rise or fall because of changes in the broad market or changes in a company’s financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. Equity securities are subject to “stock market risk” meaning that stock prices in general may decline over short or extended periods of time.</p> <p>This video and its content have been developed for J.P. Morgan Securities LLC clients and prospects and is for informational and educational purposes only. It is designed to provide general market commentary and information relating to certain services offered by J.P. Morgan Securities LLC, an affiliate of JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. Opinions expressed herein are those of the author and may differ from those of other J.P. Morgan employees and affiliates. The information in no way constitutes J.P. Morgan research and should not be trusted as such. Further, the views expressed herein may differ from that contained in J.P. Morgan research reports.</p> <p>The information and views expressed are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. You should carefully consider your needs and objectives before making any decisions. For specific guidance on how this information should be applied to your situation, you should consult your advisor.</p> <p>J.P. Morgan Wealth Management is a business of J.P. Morgan Chase and Company, which offers investment products and services&nbsp; through J.P. Morgan Securities LLC (JPMS), a registered broker-dealer and investment advisor, member of FINRA and SIPC. Annuities are made available through Chase Insurance Agency, Inc. (CIA), a licensed insurance agency, doing business as Chase Insurance Agency Services, Inc. in Florida. Certain custody and other services are provided by JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. (JPMCB). JPMS, CIA and JPMCB are affiliated companies under the common control of JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. Products not available in all states.</p> <p>Copyright {{copyrightCurrentYear}} JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p>

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