1. groups
2. investments
3. Pushbacks and top tracks: A Mid-Year mixtape

Pushbacks and top tracks: A Mid-Year mixtapeVideo

Account Id: 4394098893001

Player Id: bb60d070-b695-4c55-9162-a421ad370a53

Video ADA Text: Pushbacks and top tracks: A Mid-Year mixtape video

Transcript Browser Title: Video transcript: Pushbacks and top tracks: A Mid-Year mixtape

Description: N/A

English

Video Id: 6355372434112

Audio Description Video Id: 6355373603112

Length (seconds): 97

Transcript: <h2>Side note:</h2> <p>Background music plays.</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>This video opens on a woman in a coral-colored blouse, speaking from an office with a bookshelf.</p> <h2>Side note:</h2> <p>A bold disclaimer appears in a text box:</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p><strong>INVESTMENT AND INSURANCE PRODUCTS:</strong></p> <ul> <li><p><strong>NOT A DEPOSIT</strong></p> </li> <li><p><strong>NOT FDIC INSURED</strong></p> </li> <li><p><strong>NOT INSURED BY ANY FEDERAL GOVERNMENT AGENCY</strong></p> </li> <li><p><strong>NO BANK GUARANTEE</strong></p> </li> <li><p><strong>MAY LOSE VALUE</strong></p> </li> </ul> <h2>Kennedy Manley:</h2> <p>Here are your Top Market Takeaways.</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>A circle with a title expands:</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>Top <strong>MARKET TAKEAWAYS</strong></p> <p>A question appears over gray: <strong>What happened at the June FOMC meeting</strong>?</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>An identifying text box appears over the speaker:</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p><strong>KENNEDY MANLEY</strong></p> <p>Investment Solutions Analyst</p> <p>J.P. Morgan Wealth Management</p> <p>June 21, 2024</p> <h2>Kennedy Manley:</h2> <p>At the June Fed meeting, the Fed held policy rates steady as expected. However, it was the committee's Summary of Economic Projections, or forecasts on U.S. growth, inflation, and policy rates that garnered markets' attention. So, let's discuss these changes and what it may mean for investors.</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>Another question appears over gray: <strong>What does this mean for the economy?</strong></p> <h2>Kennedy Manley:</h2> <p>The Fed increased its forecast for core Personal Consumption Expenditures, or PCE, to 2.8% for the end of the year, up from 2.6%.</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>A line graph titled, 'Core PCE: Year-over-year, %' has a vertical axis ranging from 0% to 6%, and a horizontal axis ranging from '15 through '23. The blue data line starts between 1 and 2%, and climbs to about 2% by '17. It dips slightly in '18, returning to about 2% again in '19. From there, it falls, reaching a low near 1% just before 2021. Then it has a steady climb to a peak of nearly 6% between '21 and '23. After another brief dip and rise, it decreases steadily to about 3% through '23.</p> <h2>Side note:</h2> <p>Small text below the graph reads:</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics. Data as of April 30, 2024.</p> <h2>Kennedy Manley:</h2> <p>The revision came as strong U.S. growth and higher than anticipated inflation data in Q1 added a small speed bump in the economy's disinflationary path. Higher expected inflation for 2024 by the committee means that rates will likely be higher for longer, as the median forecast for Fed members shifted from 3 interest cuts to 1 cut this year.</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>Another line graph appears, titled, '3 cuts of CPI: Core CPI 3, 6, 12 month % annualized.' The vertical axis ranges from negative 6% to positive 12%, and the horizontal axis ranges from '15 through '23. Three lines representing 3 month (dark blue), 6 month (teal), and 12 month (orange) all start around 1.5% in '15. They follow approximately the same trajectory, with the 3-month line experiencing the most dramatic peaks and valleys. All three lines remain largely steady through '19. Just before '21, the 3-month line falls to nearly negative 3%, while the 6-month line falls to 0% and the 12-month line to about 1%. From there, they all rise to between 1% and 4.5%. They dip momentarily in '21 and rise to their peaks from there. The 3-month line peaks at about 9%, with the 6-month shortly after at about 7% and the 12-month closer to the start of '23, also around 7%. All three trajectories fall from there, continuing past '23 at 3.3% (3-month), 3.4% (12-month), and 3.7% (6-month).</p> <h2>Side note:</h2> <p>Small text below the graph reads:</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics. Data as of May 31, 2024.</p> <h2>Side note:</h2> <p>Regular size text appears.</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>A question appears over gray: <strong>What does this mean for our view?</strong></p> <h2>Kennedy Manley:</h2> <p>We see inflation continuing to slow in the second half of 2024, following a May inflation reading which was the lowest monthly increase in 3 years. Although changes to the Fed's projection may mean fewer interest rate cuts, this largely reflects the U.S. economy's strength. We prefer to remain neutral duration because as the Fed begins their cutting cycle, we expect lower Treasury rates by mid-2025.</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>A definition appears beside Kennedy:</p> <p>Neutral Duration</p> <p>{noun}</p> <p>An investment strategy that focuses on matching the underlying benchmark of an index instead of fluctuations in interest rates, largely used with fixed income products</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>A bulleted list appears below a title with a magnifying glass:</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p><strong>KEY TAKEAWAYS</strong></p> <ul> <li>While no individual datapoint or meeting drives our view, both CPI and the Fed gave us greater confidence that disinflation is still intact</li> <li>Higher for longer is here, but we have confidence that the Fed's next move will be lower</li> </ul> <h2>Kennedy Manley:</h2> <p>To learn more, please visit chase.com/theknow</p> <h2>On screen logo:</h2> <p>A logo appears over gray: J.P. Morgan WEALTH MANAGEMENT.</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>To learn more, visit chase.com/theknow</p> <h2>Side note:</h2> <p>Legal disclaimers.</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>All market and economic data are sourced from Bloomberg Finance L.P. and FactSet unless otherwise stated.</p> <p>The views, opinions, estimates and strategies expressed herein constitutes the speaker's judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice, and may differ from those expressed by other areas of J.P. Morgan. This information in no way constitutes J.P. Morgan research and should not be treated as such. You should carefully consider your needs and objectives before making any decisions --including whether the services, products, asset classes (e.g. equities, fixed income, alternative investments, commodities, etc.) or strategies discussed are suitable to your needs. You must also consider the objectives, risks, charges, and expenses associated with any investment or financial service, product or strategy prior to making an investment decision. For additional guidance on how this information should be applied to your situation, you should consult your advisor.</p> <p>Investing in securities involves market risk, including possible loss of principal, and there is no guarantee that investment objectives will be achieved.</p> <h2>Side note:</h2> <p>A disclaimer in bold reads:</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>(In bold) <strong>Outlooks and past performance is not a guarantee of future results.</strong></p> <h2>Side note:</h2> <p>The final disclaimers in regular font read:</p> <h2>On screen:</h2> <p>Asset allocation/diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against loss.</p> <p>J.P. Morgan Wealth Management is a business of JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., which offers investment products and services through (in bold) <strong>J.P. Morgan Securities LLC</strong> (JPMS), a registered broker-dealer and investment adviser, member FINRA and SIPC. Insurance products are made available through Chase Insurance Agency, Inc. (CIA), a licensed insurance agency, doing business as Chase Insurance Agency Services, Inc. in Florida. Certain custody and other services are provided by JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. (JPMCB). JPMS, CIA and JPMCB are affiliated companies under the common control of JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. Products not available in all states.</p> <p>Copyright {{copyrightCurrentYear}} JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co.</p>

Thumbnail